The Reasons Why Making Predictions is Difficult

The Reasons Why Making Predictions is Difficult

Document details
Category: Mathematics Essay
Subcategory: Statistics and Probability
Words: 588
Pages: 3

The Difficulty of Making PredictionsDespite mankinds admirable history of forecasting and prophecy, as seen from prophets such as Nostradamus to Michio Kaku, as well as the recent application of algorithms and scientific methods towards analyzing past results to determine future outcomes, prediction making remains elusive and difficult to grasp. Part of the reason depends on the pure element of chance in altering reality. Another complicating factor resides in the fact that the creation or knowledge of the prediction itself may alter reality by creating psychological effects that may persuade people to become more or less cautious. Furthermore, from a statistical standpoint, outliers are usually ignored in order to produce a line of best fit, yet they happen to be the biggest and most impactful events, making prediction even more difficult, as large events rarely follow patterns.First of all, elements of chance are difficult to factor into prediction. The painting Jackpot Machine by Wayne Thiebaud, depicting a slot machine, emphasizes the ability of chance at randomly creating success in the form of a random jackpot. Chance also plays a role in other fields when predicting outcomes, proving its role as a confounding factor in determining the effectiveness of result analysis at creating predictions. Next, the prediction itself may alter reality. For example, in the cartoon Conditional Risk by xkcd, characters who know a statistic about the probability of dying by lightning strike in fact have a much higher death rate, showing that knowledge of a prediction - or in this case, a statistic - may impact our actions psychologically, and thus in itself alter reality. This shows that even well-made predictions may go awry when they involve the human mind, which may irrationally distort results. The alteration of outcomes by released predictions undermines the predictions accuracy, as it is difficult to take humans irrationality and the spread and influence of the prediction into account when the prediction is forecasted or conceived. From a statistical standpoint, outliers...

“A good sample is better than the advice"
Hire EliteEssayWriters to Write Your Assignment!
similar examples
The Reasons Why the Impact of Lobbyists on the United States Policy Making Bodies Has been Controversial
482 words
1 pages
Why has the impact of professional lobbyists on policy making in the USA been controversial? 15markersThe impact of lobbyists on the USA policy making bodies has been considered controversial in recent years for several reasons, revolving door syndrome, the monetary focus of lobbying and the fact that lobbyists have got ...
The Reasons Why the Legal Drinking Age Should Not Be Lowered
Category: Sociology
603 words
3 pages
To Lower or Not To Lower? Curiosity to appear more grown up may be the reason why most adolescents take their first drink of an alcoholic beverage. The ability to seen more grown up can intensify drinking at a younger age. Consequently, as alcohol is seen as the Forbidden Fruit, ...
The Several Reasons Why It Is Difficult for Nurses to Reach the Priorities Set by Hospitals
1115 words
5 pages
The nursing field is a dynamic one. Many people associate the causeof this aspect with the varied types of patients that require medical care.While this is partly true, nursing is also impacted by the constantresearch and theoretical posits in the medical industry. As such, nursingeducation does not stop once the ...
The Reasons Why Many Dismissed the Prediction of Worldwide Chaos in the Rollover to Year 2000
3454 words
7 pages
Introduction Many may dismiss the predictions that there would be a worldwide chaos on January 1, 2000 as many computers programmed with two-digit year fields would mistake it to be 1900 and breakdown. However, we need not wait for the turn of the century for the trouble. Signs of early ...
Solomon’s Different Reasons Why He Rejects the Presuppositions of The Game Theory
Category: Mathematics
1207 words
5 pages
Presuppositions of The Game TheorySoloman believes that as the game theory gets more sophisticated, we tend tolose sight of the problem rather than solve it. He sees the problem as how toget people to think about business and about themselves in an Aristotelianrather than a neo-Hobbesian (or even a Rawlsian) ...
Facts on Female Mutilation and The Reasons Why Different Cultures Do It for Different Reasons
1023 words
2 pages
Female Mutilation Another Way to Control Women?More than 20 years ago, a Somali woman named Waris Dirie had her sex stolen from her in an African ritual. Her story is not as rare as we would like to think. It is estimated that 135 million girls in the world have ...
GET EVEN A BETTER ESSAY!
It's a lifetime discount time!
15% off
Save this discount code:
15OFFJUST4U